A lot of you have reached out and asked questions about what is a trend, what does foresight mean and many others. Luckily, we have answers for you from Sébastien Van Laere, Co-founder of Superframe – a strategic consultancy that uses foresight to empower businesses to navigate uncertainty and shape their future.
Foresight is an insight into the future to help you prepare accordingly for uncertain scenarios. For the sake of argument, Séb defines an ‘insight’ as understanding consumers based on data and observations from consumer research. One main method to obtain foresight is through researching trends.
We have all used trends as a buzzword to describe changes in the world we live in. But what is a trend exactly? A trend can be a general development or change in a situation or in people’s behaviour that has a long-term impact.
Researching trends and foresight is important because they can inform your business strategy:
Long-term thinking protects you from missing crucial events or facts that could affect the future of your business.
It has been proven that long-term thinking has a significant impact on the bottom line of a business. This includes everything from revenue, profit, earnings and market capitalisation.
Researching trends to inform your business strategy, innovation pipeline or brand can help distinguish fact from hype.
Hype is the extravagant or intense promotion of something using opinion and narrative, rather than being based on facts. Therefore, it’s important to spend time identifying which trends to tap into and which ones to avoid.
Some people have negative associations with trends because they mistake them for a fad. Fads are intense enthusiasm for something that is short-lived. Whereas trends have long-term impacts on the future. Emerging trends may seem that they won’t last or be a fad, so it’s important that you know how to spot different types of trends.
We have talked about the importance of spotting trends. But with so many to filter through, how can we categorise the relevant ones for our business?
Sébastien defines three main types of trends to look out for:
Also known as ‘Mega Trends’ or ‘Drivers’, contextual trends are long-term shifts with big impact. This could be a shift in the political climate or advances in technology. Examples you’re almost certain to have heard of are climate change, urbanisation and internet of things.
Consumer trends describe the shift in people’s values, attitudes and needs. They capture how culture is evolving and which consumer needs are emerging. Their impact is slightly smaller than contextual trends. Examples include the Conscious Consumer; how people’s buying habits affect climate change. Another example of Privacy Protection, where consumers are more aware and concerned by how businesses use their personal data.
Contextual and consumer trends lead to innovations in specific categories. Examples include the rise of more vegan products available, or more brands producing sustainable clothing.
One key way to prepare your brand for the future is to identify who your next consumer will be, also known as your future consumer. Here are four steps to understand your future consumer:
(i) Identify relevant trends – for the category your brand lives in.
(ii) Recruit early adopters – these could be influencers who are passionate about your category.
(iii) Conduct ethnographic research – interview and observe early adopters of your relevant trends.
(iv) Map your future consumers – summarise their lifestyle/values, aspirations and where do they consume your product.
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